{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-17", "generated_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:10.778036", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 14, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 824320, "pitcher_id": 605483, "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.49, "skill_score": 81.8, "opportunity_score": 41.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 58.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 77.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.74, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.843, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7273, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5936, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4584, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3359, "prob_4_plus": 0.843, "prob_5_plus": 0.7273, "prob_6_plus": 0.5936, "prob_7_plus": 0.4584, "prob_8_plus": 0.3359, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 85.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21736.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.125, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 93.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.6, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 93.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 93.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 823427, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "skill_score": 70.5, "opportunity_score": 66.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 25.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.21, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8218, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6971, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5576, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.421, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3009, "prob_4_plus": 0.8218, "prob_5_plus": 0.6971, "prob_6_plus": 0.5576, "prob_7_plus": 0.421, "prob_8_plus": 0.3009, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.07, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 83.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 81.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 76.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 823343, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "skill_score": 15.4, "opportunity_score": 43.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7229, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5676, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4149, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2837, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1824, "prob_4_plus": 0.7229, "prob_5_plus": 0.5676, "prob_6_plus": 0.4149, "prob_7_plus": 0.2837, "prob_8_plus": 0.1824, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 80.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 71.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 824641, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 66.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.1, "expected_contact_quality": 62.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 62.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 824077, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 10.6, "opportunity_score": 73.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.262, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "prob_7_plus": 0.262, "prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 76.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 824641, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 28.8, "opportunity_score": 47.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.693, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5315, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3784, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2513, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1567, "prob_4_plus": 0.693, "prob_5_plus": 0.5315, "prob_6_plus": 0.3784, "prob_7_plus": 0.2513, "prob_8_plus": 0.1567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.8, "expected_contact_quality": 105.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 64.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.0, "expected_contact_quality": 105.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 823668, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 53.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.3, "expected_contact_quality": 115.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.5, "expected_contact_quality": 69.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 123.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 822939, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.435, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2671, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.149, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0765, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0365, "prob_4_plus": 0.435, "prob_5_plus": 0.2671, "prob_6_plus": 0.149, "prob_7_plus": 0.0765, "prob_8_plus": 0.0365, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "matchup_score": 33.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 823668, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 24.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.1, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 112.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.1, "expected_contact_quality": 61.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 824320, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 15.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.125, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 23.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 67.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 23.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.9, "expected_contact_quality": 131.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 823589, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.34, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 35.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4212, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.255, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1402, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0709, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0333, "prob_4_plus": 0.4212, "prob_5_plus": 0.255, "prob_6_plus": 0.1402, "prob_7_plus": 0.0709, "prob_8_plus": 0.0333, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.931, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 113.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 26.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.3, "expected_contact_quality": 102.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 24.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 119.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 823427, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.33, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 17.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4192, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2533, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.139, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0701, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0329, "prob_4_plus": 0.4192, "prob_5_plus": 0.2533, "prob_6_plus": 0.139, "prob_7_plus": 0.0701, "prob_8_plus": 0.0329, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.07, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 40.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryson Stott", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 52.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 823343, "pitcher_id": 669387, "pitcher_name": "Carmen Mlodzinski", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 3.7, "opportunity_score": 14.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjustment_delta": -0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.922, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4112, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2464, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1341, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.067, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0311, "prob_4_plus": 0.4112, "prob_5_plus": 0.2464, "prob_6_plus": 0.1341, "prob_7_plus": 0.067, "prob_8_plus": 0.0311, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4653.0, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.0, "expected_contact_quality": 67.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 31.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 30.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "game_pk": 824478, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.21, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 60.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3951, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2328, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1244, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0611, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0278, "prob_4_plus": 0.3951, "prob_5_plus": 0.2328, "prob_6_plus": 0.1244, "prob_7_plus": 0.0611, "prob_8_plus": 0.0278, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.9, "expected_contact_quality": 81.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 592288, "pitcher_name": "Kent Emanuel", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687273, "pitcher_name": "Quinn Mathews", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687941, "pitcher_name": "Alec Gamboa", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683352, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686930, "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }