{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-18", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T00:29:57.679218", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 19, "skipped_start_count": 11, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 823423, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 61.8, "opportunity_score": 33.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8818, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7851, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6659, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5375, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.4133, "prob_4_plus": 0.8818, "prob_5_plus": 0.7851, "prob_6_plus": 0.6659, "prob_7_plus": 0.5375, "prob_8_plus": 0.4133, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.053, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 98.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 98.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 170.2, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 96.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 162.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824639, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.784, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6457, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4987, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3621, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2482, "prob_4_plus": 0.784, "prob_5_plus": 0.6457, "prob_6_plus": 0.4987, "prob_7_plus": 0.3621, "prob_8_plus": 0.2482, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.053, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 64.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824803, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 48.1, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 68.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.9, "expected_contact_quality": 112.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 64.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 822938, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 34.0, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.02, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824803, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "skill_score": 20.2, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7346, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5821, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.43, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2973, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1935, "prob_4_plus": 0.7346, "prob_5_plus": 0.5821, "prob_6_plus": 0.43, "prob_7_plus": 0.2973, "prob_8_plus": 0.1935, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.4, "expected_contact_quality": 149.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 823586, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 46.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.73, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.424, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.189, "prob_4_plus": 0.73, "prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "prob_6_plus": 0.424, "prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "prob_8_plus": 0.189, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 52.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 137.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 823749, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 47.1, "opportunity_score": 24.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 98.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.2, "expected_contact_quality": 142.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.9, "expected_contact_quality": 63.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 37.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.4, "expected_contact_quality": 146.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 823667, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 48.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7007, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5407, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3876, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2594, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.163, "prob_4_plus": 0.7007, "prob_5_plus": 0.5407, "prob_6_plus": 0.3876, "prob_7_plus": 0.2594, "prob_8_plus": 0.163, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 112.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.2, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 47.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 134.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824723, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 12.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.202, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.1, "expected_contact_quality": 94.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824723, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 10.2, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.446, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.106, "prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "prob_5_plus": 0.446, "prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "prob_8_plus": 0.106, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 71.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.2, "expected_contact_quality": 74.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.4, "expected_contact_quality": 103.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 87.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824475, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.064, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 96.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824319, "pitcher_id": 641778, "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "skill_score": 2.0, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.116, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.283, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "prob_6_plus": 0.283, "prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.124, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 84.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 823749, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 43.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.9, "expected_contact_quality": 95.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 49.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.5, "expected_contact_quality": 102.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 112.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 823667, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 34.8, "opportunity_score": 51.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.5, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 54.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824319, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 35.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.124, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.2, "expected_contact_quality": 62.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.0, "expected_contact_quality": 109.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.4, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 822938, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 8.7, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.522, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "prob_4_plus": 0.522, "prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.02, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.9, "expected_contact_quality": 83.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 108.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 36.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 824154, "pitcher_id": 664299, "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 3.0, "opportunity_score": 15.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5202, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3458, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2103, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1181, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0618, "prob_4_plus": 0.5202, "prob_5_plus": 0.3458, "prob_6_plus": 0.2103, "prob_7_plus": 0.1181, "prob_8_plus": 0.0618, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.031, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.5, "expected_contact_quality": 89.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.5, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 823341, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.38, "skill_score": 8.5, "opportunity_score": 42.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4291, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2619, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1452, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0741, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0351, "prob_4_plus": 0.4291, "prob_5_plus": 0.2619, "prob_6_plus": 0.1452, "prob_7_plus": 0.0741, "prob_8_plus": 0.0351, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 43.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 35.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.1, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 32.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.8, "expected_contact_quality": 105.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "game_pk": 822859, "pitcher_id": 615698, "pitcher_name": "Cal Quantrill", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 10.2, "opportunity_score": 29.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.064, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "prob_7_plus": 0.064, "prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25722.0, "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.094, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 30.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "matchup_score": 28.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 45.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 26.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.3, "expected_contact_quality": 93.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687931, "pitcher_name": "Carson Whisenhunt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 806188, "pitcher_name": "Cade Gibson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669620, "pitcher_name": "Brady Basso", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800600, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663542, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Hudson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691946, "pitcher_name": "George Klassen", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }