{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-19", "generated_at": "2026-08-20T00:12:17.627281", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823748, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 25.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823342, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 57.5, "opportunity_score": 50.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8085, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6787, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5362, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3992, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2811, "prob_4_plus": 0.8085, "prob_5_plus": 0.6787, "prob_6_plus": 0.5362, "prob_7_plus": 0.3992, "prob_8_plus": 0.2811, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 87.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 86.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823424, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 40.9, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.072, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 116.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823664, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.592, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.4, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 54.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 114.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.9, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824076, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 52.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7323, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5792, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.427, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2946, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1912, "prob_4_plus": 0.7323, "prob_5_plus": 0.5792, "prob_6_plus": 0.427, "prob_7_plus": 0.2946, "prob_8_plus": 0.1912, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.935, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 80.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823587, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 35.6, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.049, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 80.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.2, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.0, "expected_contact_quality": 98.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.7, "expected_contact_quality": 105.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823424, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 4.8, "opportunity_score": 81.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 4.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6956, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5346, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3814, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.254, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1588, "prob_4_plus": 0.6956, "prob_5_plus": 0.5346, "prob_6_plus": 0.3814, "prob_7_plus": 0.254, "prob_8_plus": 0.1588, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.072, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.0, "expected_contact_quality": 107.4 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824801, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 101.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823748, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 26.2, "opportunity_score": 49.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.451, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "prob_5_plus": 0.451, "prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 39.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 142.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.7, "expected_contact_quality": 138.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824722, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.064, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 47.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.6, "expected_contact_quality": 113.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 46.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824801, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 40.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 66.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 133.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 50.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 111.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 822937, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 47.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.7, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824640, "pitcher_id": 605280, "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.155, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "prob_7_plus": 0.155, "prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 822860, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "skill_score": 24.7, "opportunity_score": 35.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.102, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 44.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.2, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824076, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 5.6, "opportunity_score": 29.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.935, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 44.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823664, "pitcher_id": 700363, "pitcher_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 7.4, "opportunity_score": 19.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5148.0, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 36.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 132.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "matchup_score": 35.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824318, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 20.8, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.962, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.531, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3564, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2189, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1243, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0658, "prob_4_plus": 0.531, "prob_5_plus": 0.3564, "prob_6_plus": 0.2189, "prob_7_plus": 0.1243, "prob_8_plus": 0.0658, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 18.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.123, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 36.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.0, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 25.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 63.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "matchup_score": 23.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 824476, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 33.6, "opportunity_score": 35.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5038, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.33, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1975, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1091, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0561, "prob_4_plus": 0.5038, "prob_5_plus": 0.33, "prob_6_plus": 0.1975, "prob_7_plus": 0.1091, "prob_8_plus": 0.0561, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.062, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 37.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.5, "expected_contact_quality": 141.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 110.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 823342, "pitcher_id": 695549, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "skill_score": 10.0, "opportunity_score": 21.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3265, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1947, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1071, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0549, "prob_4_plus": 0.5001, "prob_5_plus": 0.3265, "prob_6_plus": 0.1947, "prob_7_plus": 0.1071, "prob_8_plus": 0.0549, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 30.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 117.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 28.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1, "expected_contact_quality": 147.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 822937, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 18.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 95.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4927, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3195, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1032, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0525, "prob_4_plus": 0.4927, "prob_5_plus": 0.3195, "prob_6_plus": 0.1891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1032, "prob_8_plus": 0.0525, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "game_pk": 822860, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.34, "skill_score": 37.1, "opportunity_score": 62.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4212, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.255, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1402, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0709, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0333, "prob_4_plus": 0.4212, "prob_5_plus": 0.255, "prob_6_plus": 0.1402, "prob_7_plus": 0.0709, "prob_8_plus": 0.0333, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.102, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 39.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.5, "expected_contact_quality": 94.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 35.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 476594, "pitcher_name": "Robert Stock", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656794, "pitcher_name": "Sean Newcomb", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683363, "pitcher_name": "Matt Wilkinson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 814490, "pitcher_name": "Ethan Pecko", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }