{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-21", "generated_at": "2026-08-21T08:10:36.311922", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 23, "skipped_start_count": 4, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823420, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.67, "skill_score": 64.3, "opportunity_score": 84.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8554, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7453, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6156, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.482, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3584, "prob_4_plus": 0.8554, "prob_5_plus": 0.7453, "prob_6_plus": 0.6156, "prob_7_plus": 0.482, "prob_8_plus": 0.3584, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 86.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 83.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.1, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 822857, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "skill_score": 45.8, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.48, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8423, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7263, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5923, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4571, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3346, "prob_4_plus": 0.8423, "prob_5_plus": 0.7263, "prob_6_plus": 0.5923, "prob_7_plus": 0.4571, "prob_8_plus": 0.3346, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.053, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 74.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823746, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8357, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7168, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.581, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4452, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3234, "prob_4_plus": 0.8357, "prob_5_plus": 0.7168, "prob_6_plus": 0.581, "prob_7_plus": 0.4452, "prob_8_plus": 0.3234, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 96.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.3, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "matchup_score": 88.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 81.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823746, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8281, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.706, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5681, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4318, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3109, "prob_4_plus": 0.8281, "prob_5_plus": 0.706, "prob_6_plus": 0.5681, "prob_7_plus": 0.4318, "prob_8_plus": 0.3109, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.06, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 76.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.1, "expected_contact_quality": 101.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823510, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8119, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6834, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5416, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4047, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.286, "prob_4_plus": 0.8119, "prob_5_plus": 0.6834, "prob_6_plus": 0.5416, "prob_7_plus": 0.4047, "prob_8_plus": 0.286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.074, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823911, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 85.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 5.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 82.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824800, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7962, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6619, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5169, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.38, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2639, "prob_4_plus": 0.7962, "prob_5_plus": 0.6619, "prob_6_plus": 0.5169, "prob_7_plus": 0.38, "prob_8_plus": 0.2639, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 79.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.4, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 70.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.8, "expected_contact_quality": 119.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824721, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7811, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6418, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4944, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.358, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2446, "prob_4_plus": 0.7811, "prob_5_plus": 0.6418, "prob_6_plus": 0.4944, "prob_7_plus": 0.358, "prob_8_plus": 0.2446, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 73.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 69.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 89.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 64.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824317, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 51.6, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.149, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 78.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 76.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 71.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824721, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 91.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 79.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 84.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 78.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824559, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.072, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 62.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 825045, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 81.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.707, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "prob_4_plus": 0.707, "prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.5, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823101, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 116.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 48.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824152, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 52.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 69.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 825045, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 110.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 54.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824152, "pitcher_id": 669713, "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 18.1, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 68.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.4, "expected_contact_quality": 103.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 104.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824800, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823830, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.652, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.484, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "prob_4_plus": 0.652, "prob_5_plus": 0.484, "prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 44.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824072, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 73.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.466, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "prob_5_plus": 0.466, "prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.2, "expected_contact_quality": 106.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "matchup_score": 45.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823101, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 18.7, "opportunity_score": 60.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.916, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 31.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.4, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 29.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 51.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824559, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.072, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 139.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 36.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 104.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.6, "expected_contact_quality": 149.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 824317, "pitcher_id": 685299, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.948, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5075, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3335, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2003, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.111, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0574, "prob_4_plus": 0.5075, "prob_5_plus": 0.3335, "prob_6_plus": 0.2003, "prob_7_plus": 0.111, "prob_8_plus": 0.0574, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.149, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 96.7 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 44.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "game_pk": 823830, "pitcher_id": 695418, "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 54.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 45.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 109.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }