{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-23", "generated_at": "2026-08-24T00:01:47.934013", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 17, "skipped_start_count": 13, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823909, "pitcher_id": 605483, "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8452, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7304, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5973, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4624, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3396, "prob_4_plus": 0.8452, "prob_5_plus": 0.7304, "prob_6_plus": 0.5973, "prob_7_plus": 0.4624, "prob_8_plus": 0.3396, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21736.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.98, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 93.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 90.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 168.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 88.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.2, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823421, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 65.2, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8266, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7038, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5655, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4291, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3084, "prob_4_plus": 0.8266, "prob_5_plus": 0.7038, "prob_6_plus": 0.5655, "prob_7_plus": 0.4291, "prob_8_plus": 0.3084, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.111, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 80.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.0, "expected_contact_quality": 104.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 78.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823507, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 47.6, "opportunity_score": 24.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.785, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "prob_4_plus": 0.785, "prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.121, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823507, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7743, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6328, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4844, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3483, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2363, "prob_4_plus": 0.7743, "prob_5_plus": 0.6328, "prob_6_plus": 0.4844, "prob_7_plus": 0.3483, "prob_8_plus": 0.2363, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.121, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 56.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823099, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 48.3, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.707, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "prob_4_plus": 0.707, "prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.6, "expected_contact_quality": 148.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.0, "expected_contact_quality": 89.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 824799, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 38.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6982, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5377, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3845, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2567, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1609, "prob_4_plus": 0.6982, "prob_5_plus": 0.5377, "prob_6_plus": 0.3845, "prob_7_plus": 0.2567, "prob_8_plus": 0.1609, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.065, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 76.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 822856, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 108.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 30.9, "opportunity_score": 23.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 88.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6982, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5377, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3845, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2567, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1609, "prob_4_plus": 0.6982, "prob_5_plus": 0.5377, "prob_6_plus": 0.3845, "prob_7_plus": 0.2567, "prob_8_plus": 0.1609, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35613.0, "temperature_f": 108.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.097, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 63.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 58.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.9, "expected_contact_quality": 63.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823099, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 43.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 52.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 117.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823258, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "skill_score": 10.6, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.956, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 63.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823745, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "skill_score": 33.9, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5521, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3773, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2365, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1371, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0742, "prob_4_plus": 0.5521, "prob_5_plus": 0.3773, "prob_6_plus": 0.2365, "prob_7_plus": 0.1371, "prob_8_plus": 0.0742, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 103.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 43.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.7, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 824799, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.106, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5184, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3441, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2088, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1171, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0612, "prob_4_plus": 0.5184, "prob_5_plus": 0.3441, "prob_6_plus": 0.2088, "prob_7_plus": 0.1171, "prob_8_plus": 0.0612, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.065, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 47.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 41.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 112.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 824150, "pitcher_id": 664299, "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 99.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 8.0, "opportunity_score": 6.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 98.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.116, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5111, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.337, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2031, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.113, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0586, "prob_4_plus": 0.5111, "prob_5_plus": 0.337, "prob_6_plus": 0.2031, "prob_7_plus": 0.113, "prob_8_plus": 0.0586, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "temperature_f": 99.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.03, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 68.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.4, "expected_contact_quality": 99.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 66.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 101.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 825043, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 9.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.112, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 48.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 44.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 107.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823258, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 34.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.316, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "prob_5_plus": 0.316, "prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.956, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 39.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 822856, "pitcher_id": 615698, "pitcher_name": "Cal Quantrill", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 108.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25722.0, "temperature_f": 108.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.097, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 41.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 38.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.1, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 35.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 103.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 824315, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.167, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.5, "expected_contact_quality": 106.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "game_pk": 823827, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 27.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.946, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 38.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 54.5, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 66.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800600, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 621097, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Waguespack", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669620, "pitcher_name": "Brady Basso", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656794, "pitcher_name": "Sean Newcomb", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687562, "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683363, "pitcher_name": "Matt Wilkinson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669199, "pitcher_name": "Lake Bachar", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683352, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }