{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-24", "generated_at": "2026-08-24T23:57:11.999667", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 14, "skipped_start_count": 6, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 823097, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.9, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 29.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8698, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7668, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6426, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5114, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3872, "prob_4_plus": 0.8698, "prob_5_plus": 0.7668, "prob_6_plus": 0.6426, "prob_7_plus": 0.5114, "prob_8_plus": 0.3872, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.928, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 92.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 88.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.5, "expected_contact_quality": 98.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 84.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.2, "expected_contact_quality": 104.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 823097, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "skill_score": 42.1, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8473, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7334, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.601, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4664, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3434, "prob_4_plus": 0.8473, "prob_5_plus": 0.7334, "prob_6_plus": 0.601, "prob_7_plus": 0.4664, "prob_8_plus": 0.3434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.928, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 89.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.9, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 82.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.4 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 80.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 823260, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 14.8, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7743, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6328, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4844, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3483, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2363, "prob_4_plus": 0.7743, "prob_5_plus": 0.6328, "prob_6_plus": 0.4844, "prob_7_plus": 0.3483, "prob_8_plus": 0.2363, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.9, "expected_contact_quality": 99.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.7, "expected_contact_quality": 116.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 825041, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.738, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5864, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4345, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3014, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1968, "prob_4_plus": 0.738, "prob_5_plus": 0.5864, "prob_6_plus": 0.4345, "prob_7_plus": 0.3014, "prob_8_plus": 0.1968, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 824235, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 0.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7335, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5807, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4285, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.296, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1924, "prob_4_plus": 0.7335, "prob_5_plus": 0.5807, "prob_6_plus": 0.4285, "prob_7_plus": 0.296, "prob_8_plus": 0.1924, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 0.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.4, "expected_contact_quality": 85.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 67.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "matchup_score": 66.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 823828, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "skill_score": 4.8, "opportunity_score": 77.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 824964, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 11.0, "opportunity_score": 52.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6982, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5377, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3845, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2567, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1609, "prob_4_plus": 0.6982, "prob_5_plus": 0.5377, "prob_6_plus": 0.3845, "prob_7_plus": 0.2567, "prob_8_plus": 0.1609, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 75.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 73.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.9, "expected_contact_quality": 104.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 103.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 823828, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 17.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 95.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 71.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 90.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 824964, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 6.8, "opportunity_score": 18.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 101.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 39.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 825041, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 824235, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 0.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "skill_score": 47.7, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.559, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3843, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2424, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1415, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0771, "prob_4_plus": 0.559, "prob_5_plus": 0.3843, "prob_6_plus": 0.2424, "prob_7_plus": 0.1415, "prob_8_plus": 0.0771, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 0.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 824557, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 17.5, "opportunity_score": 36.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5538, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2379, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1382, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0749, "prob_4_plus": 0.5538, "prob_5_plus": 0.3791, "prob_6_plus": 0.2379, "prob_7_plus": 0.1382, "prob_8_plus": 0.0749, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 51.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 822695, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 45.5, "opportunity_score": 54.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 46.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5184, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3441, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2088, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1171, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0612, "prob_4_plus": 0.5184, "prob_5_plus": 0.3441, "prob_6_plus": 0.2088, "prob_7_plus": 0.1171, "prob_8_plus": 0.0612, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 59.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 73.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "game_pk": 822695, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "skill_score": 10.4, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.487, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3142, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1849, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1004, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0507, "prob_4_plus": 0.487, "prob_5_plus": 0.3142, "prob_6_plus": 0.1849, "prob_7_plus": 0.1004, "prob_8_plus": 0.0507, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 664353, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Urquidy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691946, "pitcher_name": "George Klassen", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687931, "pitcher_name": "Carson Whisenhunt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }