{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-25", "generated_at": "2026-08-26T00:02:42.968912", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 10, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 824881, "pitcher_id": 607192, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 72.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Mauricio Dub\u00f3n", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 93.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 87.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 78.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.3, "expected_contact_quality": 106.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823989, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 83.5, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.493, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "prob_6_plus": 0.493, "prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.991, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mois\u00e9s Ballesteros", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Vaughn Grissom", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Christian Moore", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Siri", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 175.9, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.5, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823259, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 54.7, "opportunity_score": 40.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7753, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6341, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4858, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3497, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2374, "prob_4_plus": 0.7753, "prob_5_plus": 0.6341, "prob_6_plus": 0.4858, "prob_7_plus": 0.3497, "prob_8_plus": 0.2374, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.95, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ty France", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 85.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "matchup_score": 81.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.0, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ty France", "matchup_score": 76.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823259, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7662, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6222, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4728, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3373, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2268, "prob_4_plus": 0.7662, "prob_5_plus": 0.6222, "prob_6_plus": 0.4728, "prob_7_plus": 0.3373, "prob_8_plus": 0.2268, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.95, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Gonzales", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Billy Cook", "matchup_score": 90.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 184.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Flores Jr.", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 205.1, "expected_contact_quality": 103.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 77.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 824556, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 59.7, "opportunity_score": 20.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 94.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.761, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6155, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4655, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3304, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2209, "prob_4_plus": 0.761, "prob_5_plus": 0.6155, "prob_6_plus": 0.4655, "prob_7_plus": 0.3304, "prob_8_plus": 0.2209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.028, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Sam Antonacci", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Munetaka Murakami", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Miguel Vargas", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Braden Montgomery", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Drew Romo", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Tristan Peters", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 189.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 91.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823098, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 43.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7535, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.606, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4553, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3207, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2128, "prob_4_plus": 0.7535, "prob_5_plus": 0.606, "prob_6_plus": 0.4553, "prob_7_plus": 0.3207, "prob_8_plus": 0.2128, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.989, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justin Crawford", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 66.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823098, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 50.3, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 38.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.592, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.989, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 63.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brock Rodden", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Cole Young", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 824962, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 30.4, "opportunity_score": 58.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.572, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "prob_5_plus": 0.572, "prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Henry Bolte", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jeff McNeil", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tommy White", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brian Serven", "matchup_score": 83.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Alika Williams", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823505, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Allen", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Cam Smith", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Allen", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 824881, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.929, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tommy Edman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ben Rortvedt", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alek Thomas", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 37.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823585, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 22.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Carson Benge", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "A.J. Ewing", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 97.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Benge", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 97.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jared Young", "matchup_score": 47.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 822773, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 58.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.461, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.114, "prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "prob_5_plus": 0.461, "prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "prob_8_plus": 0.114, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brett Bateman", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Bateman", "matchup_score": 47.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.3, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 825042, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.192, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "prob_7_plus": 0.192, "prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Miguel Amaya", "matchup_score": 49.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.4, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Ram\u00edrez", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 40.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 105.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823181, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 17.3, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5971, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.424, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.277, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1678, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.095, "prob_4_plus": 0.5971, "prob_5_plus": 0.424, "prob_6_plus": 0.277, "prob_7_plus": 0.1678, "prob_8_plus": 0.095, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Drew Gilbert", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Buddy Kennedy", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Drew Cavanaugh", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Shay Whitcomb", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Grant McCray", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.8, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Koss", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823181, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 25.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5825, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4085, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2633, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1573, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0878, "prob_4_plus": 0.5825, "prob_5_plus": 0.4085, "prob_6_plus": 0.2633, "prob_7_plus": 0.1573, "prob_8_plus": 0.0878, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Sal Stewart", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 96.0 }, { "hitter_name": "H\u00e9ctor Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 822773, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 20.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 94.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5451, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3704, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1328, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0713, "prob_4_plus": 0.5451, "prob_5_plus": 0.3704, "prob_6_plus": 0.2306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1328, "prob_8_plus": 0.0713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Carter Jensen", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Tolbert", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "John Rave", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.7, "expected_contact_quality": 105.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823016, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 37.1, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 59.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jackson Holliday", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Coby Mayo", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christian Encarnacion-Strand", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Beavers", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.8, "expected_contact_quality": 80.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 41.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Coby Mayo", "matchup_score": 39.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.7, "expected_contact_quality": 102.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 823016, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.131, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5202, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3458, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2103, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1181, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0618, "prob_4_plus": 0.5202, "prob_5_plus": 0.3458, "prob_6_plus": 0.2103, "prob_7_plus": 0.1181, "prob_8_plus": 0.0618, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.49, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Blaze Jordan", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jimmy Crooks", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bryan Torres", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joshua B\u00e1ez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nathan Church", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jimmy Crooks", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Blaze Jordan", "matchup_score": 67.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 824233, "pitcher_id": 695549, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 0.9, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.112, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Liam Hicks", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jonny DeLuca", "matchup_score": 40.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 38.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 53.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "game_pk": 825042, "pitcher_id": 605280, "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 4.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.316, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "prob_5_plus": 0.316, "prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Max Kepler", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tim Tawa", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 137.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ildemaro Vargas", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 57.1, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 27.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 59.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 668984, "pitcher_name": "Casey Legumina", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674841, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690279, "pitcher_name": "Mason Adams", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 814490, "pitcher_name": "Ethan Pecko", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }