{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-26", "generated_at": "2026-08-26T23:47:31.397339", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 19, "skipped_start_count": 11, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823096, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "skill_score": 64.9, "opportunity_score": 76.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.28, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8274, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7049, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5668, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4304, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3096, "prob_4_plus": 0.8274, "prob_5_plus": 0.7049, "prob_6_plus": 0.5668, "prob_7_plus": 0.4304, "prob_8_plus": 0.3096, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.0, "expected_contact_quality": 103.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 66.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 66.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823180, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.16, "skill_score": 20.6, "opportunity_score": 52.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8178, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6915, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.551, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4142, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2947, "prob_4_plus": 0.8178, "prob_5_plus": 0.6915, "prob_6_plus": 0.551, "prob_7_plus": 0.4142, "prob_8_plus": 0.2947, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.933, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 77.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 824234, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 21.2, "opportunity_score": 40.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.652, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.369, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.972, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 79.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 79.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "matchup_score": 71.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.9, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823015, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7811, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6418, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4944, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.358, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2446, "prob_4_plus": 0.7811, "prob_5_plus": 0.6418, "prob_6_plus": 0.4944, "prob_7_plus": 0.358, "prob_8_plus": 0.2446, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 92.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 83.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.7, "expected_contact_quality": 65.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.4, "expected_contact_quality": 67.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 824555, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 52.7, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 71.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "matchup_score": 69.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.0, "expected_contact_quality": 100.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.7, "expected_contact_quality": 61.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823096, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 28.6, "opportunity_score": 54.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 92.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 80.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 75.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823988, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "skill_score": 48.9, "opportunity_score": 11.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7437, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5935, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4419, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2025, "prob_4_plus": 0.7437, "prob_5_plus": 0.5935, "prob_6_plus": 0.4419, "prob_7_plus": 0.3083, "prob_8_plus": 0.2025, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 72.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 824963, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "skill_score": 18.3, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.54, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5892, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4375, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3042, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1991, "prob_4_plus": 0.7403, "prob_5_plus": 0.5892, "prob_6_plus": 0.4375, "prob_7_plus": 0.3042, "prob_8_plus": 0.1991, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 80.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 178.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 67.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823825, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.14, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.945, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 94.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.0, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 88.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.8, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 81.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.6, "expected_contact_quality": 105.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823180, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 27.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.933, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 79.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.3, "expected_contact_quality": 61.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 65.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.1, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823825, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 15.9, "opportunity_score": 12.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.945, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 105.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 825039, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 72.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.461, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.114, "prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "prob_5_plus": 0.461, "prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "prob_8_plus": 0.114, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 106.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 49.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.5, "expected_contact_quality": 84.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 825039, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 48.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.8, "expected_contact_quality": 81.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 111.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 824555, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 39.6, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 42.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.087, "prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "prob_8_plus": 0.087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.4, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 38.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.9, "expected_contact_quality": 110.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.5, "expected_contact_quality": 74.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 824878, "pitcher_id": 700363, "pitcher_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 19.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5758, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4016, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2573, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1527, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0846, "prob_4_plus": 0.5758, "prob_5_plus": 0.4016, "prob_6_plus": 0.2573, "prob_7_plus": 0.1527, "prob_8_plus": 0.0846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 18.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5148.0, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 41.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 31.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "matchup_score": 20.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823584, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 17.7, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 113.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 128.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823015, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 36.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 31.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "matchup_score": 28.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 53.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 822692, "pitcher_id": 685299, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.51, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 36.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.51, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4546, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2844, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.162, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.085, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0415, "prob_4_plus": 0.4546, "prob_5_plus": 0.2844, "prob_6_plus": 0.162, "prob_7_plus": 0.085, "prob_8_plus": 0.0415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.02, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 41.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "matchup_score": 33.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.5, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "game_pk": 823255, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 12.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 54.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 56.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 26.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.0, "expected_contact_quality": 100.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663362, "pitcher_name": "Matt Waldron", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695684, "pitcher_name": "Elmer Rodr\u00edguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693686, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 476594, "pitcher_name": "Robert Stock", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }