{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-28", "generated_at": "2026-08-28T23:53:01.445912", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 16, "skipped_start_count": 14, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 822769, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.91, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 74.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.91, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8704, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7677, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6437, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5127, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3885, "prob_4_plus": 0.8704, "prob_5_plus": 0.7677, "prob_6_plus": 0.6437, "prob_7_plus": 0.5127, "prob_8_plus": 0.3885, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.7, "expected_contact_quality": 101.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 73.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824231, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 63.6, "opportunity_score": 67.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8541, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7434, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6132, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4794, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3559, "prob_4_plus": 0.8541, "prob_5_plus": 0.7434, "prob_6_plus": 0.6132, "prob_7_plus": 0.4794, "prob_8_plus": 0.3559, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "matchup_score": 88.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.9, "expected_contact_quality": 91.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 823583, "pitcher_id": 686613, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 26.7, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 89.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 79.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.4, "expected_contact_quality": 89.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 78.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 823504, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 59.0, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8033, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6716, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.528, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.391, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2737, "prob_4_plus": 0.8033, "prob_5_plus": 0.6716, "prob_6_plus": 0.528, "prob_7_plus": 0.391, "prob_8_plus": 0.2737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 87.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "matchup_score": 81.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824877, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 35.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7312, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5778, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4255, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2932, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1901, "prob_4_plus": 0.7312, "prob_5_plus": 0.5778, "prob_6_plus": 0.4255, "prob_7_plus": 0.2932, "prob_8_plus": 0.1901, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 80.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.6, "expected_contact_quality": 64.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 76.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.4, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824638, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 23.8, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7181, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5617, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4089, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2782, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.178, "prob_4_plus": 0.7181, "prob_5_plus": 0.5617, "prob_6_plus": 0.4089, "prob_7_plus": 0.2782, "prob_8_plus": 0.178, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 62.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 823666, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "skill_score": 29.4, "opportunity_score": 40.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824396, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824960, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.9, "expected_contact_quality": 106.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 823666, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 30.0, "opportunity_score": 45.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 52.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.225, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 56.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 822935, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 28.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.95, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 65.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 48.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 46.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824396, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 67.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 70.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 822691, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 43.4, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.451, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "prob_5_plus": 0.451, "prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 822769, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.945, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5345, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3599, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2218, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1264, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0671, "prob_4_plus": 0.5345, "prob_5_plus": 0.3599, "prob_6_plus": 0.2218, "prob_7_plus": 0.1264, "prob_8_plus": 0.0671, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 29.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 28.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 127.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824960, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 51.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4814, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3089, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1808, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0976, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.049, "prob_4_plus": 0.4814, "prob_5_plus": 0.3089, "prob_6_plus": 0.1808, "prob_7_plus": 0.0976, "prob_8_plus": 0.049, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.2, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 48.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.0, "expected_contact_quality": 109.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "matchup_score": 30.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 55.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "game_pk": 824877, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.391, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2295, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1221, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0596, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.391, "prob_5_plus": 0.2295, "prob_6_plus": 0.1221, "prob_7_plus": 0.0596, "prob_8_plus": 0.027, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.0, "expected_contact_quality": 104.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 25.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 59.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 623454, "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800600, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681035, "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701656, "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674003, "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687273, "pitcher_name": "Quinn Mathews", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694918, "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 684442, "pitcher_name": "Kohl Drake", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }