{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-31", "generated_at": "2026-08-31T23:51:42.749828", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 14, "skipped_start_count": 10, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 822855, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 25.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 93.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7953, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6607, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5155, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3786, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2627, "prob_4_plus": 0.7953, "prob_5_plus": 0.6607, "prob_6_plus": 0.5155, "prob_7_plus": 0.3786, "prob_8_plus": 0.2627, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.066, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 93.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 168.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 82.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 823663, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7514, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6032, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4523, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3179, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2105, "prob_4_plus": 0.7514, "prob_5_plus": 0.6032, "prob_6_plus": 0.4523, "prob_7_plus": 0.3179, "prob_8_plus": 0.2105, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.974, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.9, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 92.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824719, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 17.6, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.09, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 79.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 71.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 66.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824473, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 27.7, "opportunity_score": 63.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.66, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.14, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.592, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.073, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 89.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 84.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 83.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.1, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824911, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 60.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.963, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 825040, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 58.2, "opportunity_score": 58.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 52.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824314, "pitcher_id": 700249, "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 19.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.139, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 64.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 64.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 825040, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 17.2, "opportunity_score": 65.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.4 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 111.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824635, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 26.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.066, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.2, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 119.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824473, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 67.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.073, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 822689, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 15.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.998, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 57.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 44.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824635, "pitcher_id": 605280, "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 6.1, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5641, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3895, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2468, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1448, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0793, "prob_4_plus": 0.5641, "prob_5_plus": 0.3895, "prob_6_plus": 0.2468, "prob_7_plus": 0.1448, "prob_8_plus": 0.0793, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.066, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.6, "expected_contact_quality": 77.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 32.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Sal Frelick", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 57.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 824314, "pitcher_id": 685299, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 3.7, "opportunity_score": 45.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5398, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3651, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2262, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1295, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0692, "prob_4_plus": 0.5398, "prob_5_plus": 0.3651, "prob_6_plus": 0.2262, "prob_7_plus": 0.1295, "prob_8_plus": 0.0692, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.139, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.4, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 30.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "matchup_score": 29.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 58.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "game_pk": 823663, "pitcher_id": 695549, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 1.3, "opportunity_score": 26.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5202, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3458, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2103, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1181, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0618, "prob_4_plus": 0.5202, "prob_5_plus": 0.3458, "prob_6_plus": 0.2103, "prob_7_plus": 0.1181, "prob_8_plus": 0.0618, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.974, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.1, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.6, "expected_contact_quality": 134.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 683627, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Molina", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 476594, "pitcher_name": "Robert Stock", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702021, "pitcher_name": "Will Dion", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695684, "pitcher_name": "Elmer Rodr\u00edguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }