{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-01", "generated_at": "2026-09-01T23:59:44.537512", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 19, "skipped_start_count": 11, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 822854, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 48.9, "opportunity_score": 52.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 46.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8258, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7027, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5642, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4277, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3071, "prob_4_plus": 0.8258, "prob_5_plus": 0.7027, "prob_6_plus": 0.5642, "prob_7_plus": 0.4277, "prob_8_plus": 0.3071, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.074, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 87.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 823340, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 39.6, "opportunity_score": 40.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8077, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6776, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5348, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3978, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2799, "prob_4_plus": 0.8077, "prob_5_plus": 0.6776, "prob_6_plus": 0.5348, "prob_7_plus": 0.3978, "prob_8_plus": 0.2799, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 96.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 92.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 822929, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 47.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8051, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.674, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5307, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3937, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2762, "prob_4_plus": 0.8051, "prob_5_plus": 0.674, "prob_6_plus": 0.5307, "prob_7_plus": 0.3937, "prob_8_plus": 0.2762, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 84.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.6, "expected_contact_quality": 95.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 80.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.5, "expected_contact_quality": 93.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824313, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 8.5, "opportunity_score": 44.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 57.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.125, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 93.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 92.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 89.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 825038, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "skill_score": 74.5, "opportunity_score": 82.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 71.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.1, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.5, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 91.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 823340, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7723, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6302, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4815, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3455, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2339, "prob_4_plus": 0.7723, "prob_5_plus": 0.6302, "prob_6_plus": 0.4815, "prob_7_plus": 0.3455, "prob_8_plus": 0.2339, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 73.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.9, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824391, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 77.1, "opportunity_score": 45.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjustment_delta": -0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.942, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.99, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.2, "expected_contact_quality": 107.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 47.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824472, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "skill_score": 17.3, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.064, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 69.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 61.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824148, "pitcher_id": 669854, "pitcher_name": "Ronel Blanco", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 37.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16736.0, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.024, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 68.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824716, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.999, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 86.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 81.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 71.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1, "expected_contact_quality": 69.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 822929, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 34.4, "opportunity_score": 63.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 25.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 77.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.6, "expected_contact_quality": 65.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824633, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.05, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.0 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 825038, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "skill_score": 22.4, "opportunity_score": 76.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.8, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 823908, "pitcher_id": 641778, "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 1.9, "opportunity_score": 50.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6083, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4359, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2876, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1761, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1009, "prob_4_plus": 0.6083, "prob_5_plus": 0.4359, "prob_6_plus": 0.2876, "prob_7_plus": 0.1761, "prob_8_plus": 0.1009, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.4, "expected_contact_quality": 110.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 822687, "pitcher_id": 663623, "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 24.1, "opportunity_score": 38.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 40.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.4, "expected_contact_quality": 105.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 36.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 29.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 145.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824148, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 45.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5256, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3511, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2146, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1212, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0638, "prob_4_plus": 0.5256, "prob_5_plus": 0.3511, "prob_6_plus": 0.2146, "prob_7_plus": 0.1212, "prob_8_plus": 0.0638, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.024, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 42.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 822687, "pitcher_id": 700363, "pitcher_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 0.8, "opportunity_score": 17.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5238, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3493, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2131, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1201, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0631, "prob_4_plus": 0.5238, "prob_5_plus": 0.3493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2131, "prob_7_plus": 0.1201, "prob_8_plus": 0.0631, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5148.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 38.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.2, "expected_contact_quality": 107.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "matchup_score": 30.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 57.1, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 824472, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.32, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 21.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 87.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4172, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2516, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1377, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0693, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0324, "prob_4_plus": 0.4172, "prob_5_plus": 0.2516, "prob_6_plus": 0.1377, "prob_7_plus": 0.0693, "prob_8_plus": 0.0324, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.064, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 31.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.3, "expected_contact_quality": 103.2 }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 51.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "game_pk": 823908, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.12, "skill_score": 4.0, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3768, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2177, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.114, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0547, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0244, "prob_4_plus": 0.3768, "prob_5_plus": 0.2177, "prob_6_plus": 0.114, "prob_7_plus": 0.0547, "prob_8_plus": 0.0244, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 32.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 67.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 26.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.1, "expected_contact_quality": 126.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 693686, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 699151, "pitcher_name": "Jedixson Paez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702193, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Morris", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 688107, "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669620, "pitcher_name": "Brady Basso", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687312, "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }