{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-02", "generated_at": "2026-09-02T08:05:11.850987", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 19, "skipped_start_count": 10, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824390, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "skill_score": 69.6, "opportunity_score": 66.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 17.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8365, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7179, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5822, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4465, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3246, "prob_4_plus": 0.8365, "prob_5_plus": 0.7179, "prob_6_plus": 0.5822, "prob_7_plus": 0.4465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3246, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.029, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 92.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 172.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 84.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 81.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.3, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 823983, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 58.3, "opportunity_score": 49.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8128, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6846, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5429, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.406, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2873, "prob_4_plus": 0.8128, "prob_5_plus": 0.6846, "prob_6_plus": 0.5429, "prob_7_plus": 0.406, "prob_8_plus": 0.2873, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 89.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "matchup_score": 87.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.2, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 823906, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 43.6, "opportunity_score": 78.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 6.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8033, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6716, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.528, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.391, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2737, "prob_4_plus": 0.8033, "prob_5_plus": 0.6716, "prob_6_plus": 0.528, "prob_7_plus": 0.391, "prob_8_plus": 0.2737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 89.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 88.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824634, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 80.0, "opportunity_score": 56.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 81.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824390, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 28.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 87.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "adjustment_delta": -0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.73, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.424, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.189, "prob_4_plus": 0.73, "prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "prob_6_plus": 0.424, "prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "prob_8_plus": 0.189, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.029, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 83.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 58.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 98.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 823660, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.242, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.973, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 92.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824312, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 37.7, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.129, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824470, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 97.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 21.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 97.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.163, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.1, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 97.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824634, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 29.0, "opportunity_score": 47.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.673, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "prob_4_plus": 0.673, "prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.6, "expected_contact_quality": 108.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 45.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 822851, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 96.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6563, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4889, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3368, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.216, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1298, "prob_4_plus": 0.6563, "prob_5_plus": 0.4889, "prob_6_plus": 0.3368, "prob_7_plus": 0.216, "prob_8_plus": 0.1298, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 96.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.993, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 94.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 822686, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6373, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4676, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3168, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1995, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1176, "prob_4_plus": 0.6373, "prob_5_plus": 0.4676, "prob_6_plus": 0.3168, "prob_7_plus": 0.1995, "prob_8_plus": 0.1176, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 63.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824068, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 26.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.192, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "prob_7_plus": 0.192, "prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 57.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.4, "expected_contact_quality": 74.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824068, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 46.1, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6268, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.456, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1908, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1113, "prob_4_plus": 0.6268, "prob_5_plus": 0.456, "prob_6_plus": 0.306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1908, "prob_8_plus": 0.1113, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 71.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 61.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "matchup_score": 63.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824147, "pitcher_id": 669713, "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 42.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 53.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.9, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 823339, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 49.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824717, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "skill_score": 17.3, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.283, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "prob_6_plus": 0.283, "prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.037, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 70.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 108.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824147, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 5.8, "opportunity_score": 20.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.6, "expected_contact_quality": 87.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 824312, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 35.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.129, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 30.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "matchup_score": 24.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 54.6, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "game_pk": 822686, "pitcher_id": 695418, "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4526, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2827, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1607, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0841, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.4526, "prob_5_plus": 0.2827, "prob_6_plus": 0.1607, "prob_7_plus": 0.0841, "prob_8_plus": 0.041, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 42.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 99.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.8, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 30.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 682227, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Williamson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674003, "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 664199, "pitcher_name": "Taylor Clarke", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663795, "pitcher_name": "Justin Hagenman", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 623454, "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }