{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-04", "generated_at": "2026-09-04T23:51:40.771130", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 11, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823093, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.62, "skill_score": 37.5, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.852, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7404, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6096, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4755, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3522, "prob_4_plus": 0.852, "prob_5_plus": 0.7404, "prob_6_plus": 0.6096, "prob_7_plus": 0.4755, "prob_8_plus": 0.3522, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.929, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 96.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 84.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823418, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 70.2, "opportunity_score": 76.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8466, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7324, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5998, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.465, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3421, "prob_4_plus": 0.8466, "prob_5_plus": 0.7324, "prob_6_plus": 0.5998, "prob_7_plus": 0.465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3421, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.053, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 91.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "matchup_score": 89.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823905, "pitcher_id": 605483, "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.35, "skill_score": 73.8, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8327, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7125, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5758, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4398, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3184, "prob_4_plus": 0.8327, "prob_5_plus": 0.7125, "prob_6_plus": 0.5758, "prob_7_plus": 0.4398, "prob_8_plus": 0.3184, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21736.0, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 85.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.3, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 82.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.4, "expected_contact_quality": 63.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 81.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823418, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 64.2, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.053, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 72.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.5, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823256, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 29.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7323, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5792, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.427, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2946, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1912, "prob_4_plus": 0.7323, "prob_5_plus": 0.5792, "prob_6_plus": 0.427, "prob_7_plus": 0.2946, "prob_8_plus": 0.1912, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.931, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 68.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.0, "expected_contact_quality": 88.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824797, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.712, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "prob_4_plus": 0.712, "prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.014, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823824, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 48.1, "opportunity_score": 34.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 78.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6969, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5361, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.383, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2553, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1599, "prob_4_plus": 0.6969, "prob_5_plus": 0.5361, "prob_6_plus": 0.383, "prob_7_plus": 0.2553, "prob_8_plus": 0.1599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.927, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.2, "expected_contact_quality": 69.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824554, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 10.4, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 26.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824797, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 74.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6563, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4889, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3368, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.216, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1298, "prob_4_plus": 0.6563, "prob_5_plus": 0.4889, "prob_6_plus": 0.3368, "prob_7_plus": 0.216, "prob_8_plus": 0.1298, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.014, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 60.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824146, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 73.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 74.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.0, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824424, "pitcher_id": 671106, "pitcher_name": "Logan Allen", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 35.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26532.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 43.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 36.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.7, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 119.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824067, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 25.0, "opportunity_score": 25.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.155, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "prob_7_plus": 0.155, "prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.021, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 44.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824311, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.126, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824554, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 24.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.5, "expected_contact_quality": 109.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 38.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 822852, "pitcher_id": 592866, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Williams", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 4.7, "opportunity_score": 34.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.522, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "prob_4_plus": 0.522, "prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19362.0, "temperature_f": 86.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.049, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 35.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 822852, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 55.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5038, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.33, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1975, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1091, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0561, "prob_4_plus": 0.5038, "prob_5_plus": 0.33, "prob_6_plus": 0.1975, "prob_7_plus": 0.1091, "prob_8_plus": 0.0561, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 86.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.049, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 43.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 42.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 42.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823256, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 8.4, "opportunity_score": 33.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4982, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3247, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1933, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1061, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0543, "prob_4_plus": 0.4982, "prob_5_plus": 0.3247, "prob_6_plus": 0.1933, "prob_7_plus": 0.1061, "prob_8_plus": 0.0543, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.931, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.3, "expected_contact_quality": 149.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 22.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824146, "pitcher_id": 664299, "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 22.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4776, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3054, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1781, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0957, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0479, "prob_4_plus": 0.4776, "prob_5_plus": 0.3054, "prob_6_plus": 0.1781, "prob_7_plus": 0.0957, "prob_8_plus": 0.0479, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 42.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 36.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.8, "expected_contact_quality": 91.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.1, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 823824, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.47, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 16.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4468, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2775, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1568, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0815, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0394, "prob_4_plus": 0.4468, "prob_5_plus": 0.2775, "prob_6_plus": 0.1568, "prob_7_plus": 0.0815, "prob_8_plus": 0.0394, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.927, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 36.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 47.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 31.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824424, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 6.1, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.064, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "prob_7_plus": 0.064, "prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 96.5 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.8, "expected_contact_quality": 79.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "game_pk": 824311, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 65.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3991, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2362, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1268, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0625, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0286, "prob_4_plus": 0.3991, "prob_5_plus": 0.2362, "prob_6_plus": 0.1268, "prob_7_plus": 0.0625, "prob_8_plus": 0.0286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.126, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.0, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 53.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808825, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Sears", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696270, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683363, "pitcher_name": "Matt Wilkinson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800600, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695034, "pitcher_name": "Kade Morris", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }