{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-05", "generated_at": "2026-09-05T08:04:31.195574", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 23, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823419, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 7.02, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8768, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7774, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6561, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5264, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.4022, "prob_4_plus": 0.8768, "prob_5_plus": 0.7774, "prob_6_plus": 0.6561, "prob_7_plus": 0.5264, "prob_8_plus": 0.4022, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 98.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 90.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.5, "expected_contact_quality": 93.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 84.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823904, "pitcher_id": 607192, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "skill_score": 66.8, "opportunity_score": 34.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 93.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.28, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8274, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7049, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5668, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4304, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3096, "prob_4_plus": 0.8274, "prob_5_plus": 0.7049, "prob_6_plus": 0.5668, "prob_7_plus": 0.4304, "prob_8_plus": 0.3096, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 87.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.8, "expected_contact_quality": 110.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823094, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7925, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.657, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5113, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3745, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2591, "prob_4_plus": 0.7925, "prob_5_plus": 0.657, "prob_6_plus": 0.5113, "prob_7_plus": 0.3745, "prob_8_plus": 0.2591, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 94.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 81.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823257, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 13.4, "opportunity_score": 51.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.784, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6457, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4987, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3621, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2482, "prob_4_plus": 0.784, "prob_5_plus": 0.6457, "prob_6_plus": 0.4987, "prob_7_plus": 0.3621, "prob_8_plus": 0.2482, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.1, "expected_contact_quality": 126.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 822850, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 67.1, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 93.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 94.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.5, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 75.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 73.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823257, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 39.1, "opportunity_score": 27.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.329, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "prob_7_plus": 0.329, "prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 93.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.2, "expected_contact_quality": 65.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824389, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.54, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7145, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5573, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4043, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2742, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1748, "prob_4_plus": 0.7145, "prob_5_plus": 0.5573, "prob_6_plus": 0.4043, "prob_7_plus": 0.2742, "prob_8_plus": 0.1748, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.972, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 83.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 64.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 75.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824795, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7145, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5573, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4043, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2742, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1748, "prob_4_plus": 0.7145, "prob_5_plus": 0.5573, "prob_6_plus": 0.4043, "prob_7_plus": 0.2742, "prob_8_plus": 0.1748, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 80.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 72.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.5, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 72.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.1, "expected_contact_quality": 110.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824553, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 47.7, "opportunity_score": 55.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.933, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823335, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 26.6, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.707, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "prob_4_plus": 0.707, "prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35613.0, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.93, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 70.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 63.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.4, "expected_contact_quality": 108.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824066, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 10.8, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 56.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 102.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.8, "expected_contact_quality": 80.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823823, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 11.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 48.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 41.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 125.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823094, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 25.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 133.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.3, "expected_contact_quality": 62.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824145, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 58.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.169, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.992, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824468, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 14.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.113, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 75.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 96.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 46.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.9, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824795, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 14.4, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 70.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.6, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 72.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824468, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.412, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 102.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 86.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 822850, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.559, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3843, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2424, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1415, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0771, "prob_4_plus": 0.559, "prob_5_plus": 0.3843, "prob_6_plus": 0.2424, "prob_7_plus": 0.1415, "prob_8_plus": 0.0771, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824310, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 43.6, "opportunity_score": 50.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.206, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.115, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "prob_6_plus": 0.206, "prob_7_plus": 0.115, "prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.127, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 824066, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 33.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.121, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4908, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3177, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1877, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1023, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0519, "prob_4_plus": 0.4908, "prob_5_plus": 0.3177, "prob_6_plus": 0.1877, "prob_7_plus": 0.1023, "prob_8_plus": 0.0519, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 66.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823823, "pitcher_id": 665871, "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.4, "opportunity_score": 33.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4642, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2932, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1686, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0894, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0441, "prob_4_plus": 0.4642, "prob_5_plus": 0.2932, "prob_6_plus": 0.1686, "prob_7_plus": 0.0894, "prob_8_plus": 0.0441, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 77.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 36.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 129.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823419, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.42, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 30.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.437, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2688, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1503, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0774, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.037, "prob_4_plus": 0.437, "prob_5_plus": 0.2688, "prob_6_plus": 0.1503, "prob_7_plus": 0.0774, "prob_8_plus": 0.037, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.1, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryson Stott", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "matchup_score": 29.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "game_pk": 823904, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 67.9, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 35.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 135.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683627, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Molina", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 814490, "pitcher_name": "Ethan Pecko", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690279, "pitcher_name": "Mason Adams", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }