{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-07", "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-07T23:50:19.216281", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 16, "skipped_start_count": 6, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 824958, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.74, "skill_score": 62.0, "opportunity_score": 61.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 22.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8599, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.752, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.624, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4911, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3672, "prob_4_plus": 0.8599, "prob_5_plus": 0.752, "prob_6_plus": 0.624, "prob_7_plus": 0.4911, "prob_8_plus": 0.3672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 92.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 86.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 64.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 84.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823415, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "skill_score": 75.5, "opportunity_score": 75.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.51, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.37, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8342, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7147, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5784, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4425, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3209, "prob_4_plus": 0.8342, "prob_5_plus": 0.7147, "prob_6_plus": 0.5784, "prob_7_plus": 0.4425, "prob_8_plus": 0.3209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823175, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 47.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.948, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 79.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 71.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 69.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.4, "expected_contact_quality": 74.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 824229, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "skill_score": 30.1, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.798, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6643, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5197, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3828, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2664, "prob_4_plus": 0.798, "prob_5_plus": 0.6643, "prob_6_plus": 0.5197, "prob_7_plus": 0.3828, "prob_8_plus": 0.2664, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.923, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 82.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 77.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.1, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823254, "pitcher_id": 601713, "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 57.4, "opportunity_score": 15.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.762, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6169, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.467, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3317, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2221, "prob_4_plus": 0.762, "prob_5_plus": 0.6169, "prob_6_plus": 0.467, "prob_7_plus": 0.3317, "prob_8_plus": 0.2221, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27855.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.927, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823902, "pitcher_id": 686218, "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 44.0, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.214, "prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "prob_8_plus": 0.214, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 83.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 80.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.2, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 824793, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 22.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7253, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5705, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.418, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2864, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1846, "prob_4_plus": 0.7253, "prob_5_plus": 0.5705, "prob_6_plus": 0.418, "prob_7_plus": 0.2864, "prob_8_plus": 0.1846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.991, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.3, "expected_contact_quality": 109.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 99.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823820, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 33.2, "opportunity_score": 43.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.7, "expected_contact_quality": 109.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 67.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 106.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 66.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 89.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 824958, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 40.6, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.0, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 68.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.6, "expected_contact_quality": 90.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.8, "expected_contact_quality": 107.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 824793, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 49.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.991, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.0, "expected_contact_quality": 105.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 70.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 68.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823415, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 15.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 101.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823742, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 12.0, "opportunity_score": 60.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.5 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 52.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 824715, "pitcher_id": 678394, "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 40.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.04, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 57.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 824062, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 96.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 20.8, "opportunity_score": 56.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5775, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4034, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2588, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1538, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0854, "prob_4_plus": 0.5775, "prob_5_plus": 0.4034, "prob_6_plus": 0.2588, "prob_7_plus": 0.1538, "prob_8_plus": 0.0854, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 96.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.1, "expected_contact_quality": 89.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 37.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 59.5, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823254, "pitcher_id": 663623, "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 26.5, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5398, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3651, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2262, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1295, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0692, "prob_4_plus": 0.5398, "prob_5_plus": 0.3651, "prob_6_plus": 0.2262, "prob_7_plus": 0.1295, "prob_8_plus": 0.0692, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.927, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.8, "expected_contact_quality": 108.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "game_pk": 823175, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 47.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.106, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.387, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2261, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1197, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0582, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0263, "prob_4_plus": 0.387, "prob_5_plus": 0.2261, "prob_6_plus": 0.1197, "prob_7_plus": 0.0582, "prob_8_plus": 0.0263, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.948, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 52.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 41.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 41.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.0, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T03:50:19.216052+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 804636, "pitcher_name": "Jonah Tong", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 571882, "pitcher_name": "Derek Law", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 688107, "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }