{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-08", "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-08T14:01:38.871061", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 19, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823901, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 7.16, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 60.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8845, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7892, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6713, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5436, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.4195, "prob_4_plus": 0.8845, "prob_5_plus": 0.7892, "prob_6_plus": 0.6713, "prob_7_plus": 0.5436, "prob_8_plus": 0.4195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 91.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.9, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 96.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823500, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "skill_score": 61.8, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.832, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7115, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5745, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4385, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3171, "prob_4_plus": 0.832, "prob_5_plus": 0.7115, "prob_6_plus": 0.5745, "prob_7_plus": 0.4385, "prob_8_plus": 0.3171, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.073, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "matchup_score": 88.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 87.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823738, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "skill_score": 68.6, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.11, "adjustment_delta": -0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8136, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6857, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5443, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4074, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2885, "prob_4_plus": 0.8136, "prob_5_plus": 0.6857, "prob_6_plus": 0.5443, "prob_7_plus": 0.4074, "prob_8_plus": 0.2885, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 81.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.7, "expected_contact_quality": 90.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824957, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 55.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.652, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.369, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 172.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.0, "expected_contact_quality": 142.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824875, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "skill_score": 29.5, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7782, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.638, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4901, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3538, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.241, "prob_4_plus": 0.7782, "prob_5_plus": 0.638, "prob_6_plus": 0.4901, "prob_7_plus": 0.3538, "prob_8_plus": 0.241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 82.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824063, "pitcher_id": 669203, "pitcher_name": "Corbin Burnes", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 46.6, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26262.0, "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 70.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.0, "expected_contact_quality": 65.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 68.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823821, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 6.4, "opportunity_score": 76.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 7.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.712, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "prob_4_plus": 0.712, "prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.1, "expected_contact_quality": 109.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.1, "expected_contact_quality": 108.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 44.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 117.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824792, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 16.7, "opportunity_score": 53.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.707, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "prob_4_plus": 0.707, "prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 73.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823901, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 36.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 117.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.6, "expected_contact_quality": 74.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823821, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 21.6, "opportunity_score": 71.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.702, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5422, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2607, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1641, "prob_4_plus": 0.702, "prob_5_plus": 0.5422, "prob_6_plus": 0.3891, "prob_7_plus": 0.2607, "prob_8_plus": 0.1641, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 82.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 76.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.1, "expected_contact_quality": 100.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 74.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823250, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 27.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjustment_delta": -0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.917, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6619, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4953, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.343, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2211, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1337, "prob_4_plus": 0.6619, "prob_5_plus": 0.4953, "prob_6_plus": 0.343, "prob_7_plus": 0.2211, "prob_8_plus": 0.1337, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.957, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 89.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 45.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 43.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824228, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 91.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823174, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 9.7, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.925, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.8, "expected_contact_quality": 64.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.6, "expected_contact_quality": 65.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824063, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 33.8, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": -0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.918, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.202, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 38.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "matchup_score": 38.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.6, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823738, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 49.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 52.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.6, "expected_contact_quality": 109.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 45.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 823414, "pitcher_id": 669713, "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 1.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.169, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 1.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.057, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 111.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824551, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 27.7, "opportunity_score": 52.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.155, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "prob_7_plus": 0.155, "prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.059, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.5, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 40.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 106.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 35.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 114.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824875, "pitcher_id": 700363, "pitcher_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 21.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5148.0, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 41.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "game_pk": 824792, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 11.4, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4852, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3124, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1836, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0994, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0502, "prob_4_plus": 0.4852, "prob_5_plus": 0.3124, "prob_6_plus": 0.1836, "prob_7_plus": 0.0994, "prob_8_plus": 0.0502, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 45.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.7, "expected_contact_quality": 116.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 43.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.2, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 39.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 98.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-08T18:01:38.870699+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 623454, "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687312, "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683000, "pitcher_name": "Riley Cornelio", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678022, "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687273, "pitcher_name": "Quinn Mathews", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }