{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-09", "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-09T23:49:16.500397", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 14, "skipped_start_count": 16, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823416, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.111, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Yainer Diaz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Cam Smith", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "LaMonte Wade Jr.", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823900, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 62.6, "opportunity_score": 67.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Carlos Jorge", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Sal Stewart", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "H\u00e9ctor Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Will Banfield", "matchup_score": 94.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 193.8, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 85.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Jorge", "matchup_score": 73.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823416, "pitcher_id": 686613, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 35.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.111, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryson Stott", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Bryan De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 84.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Derek Hill", "matchup_score": 73.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.8, "expected_contact_quality": 97.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823739, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7578, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6114, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4612, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3262, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2174, "prob_4_plus": 0.7578, "prob_5_plus": 0.6114, "prob_6_plus": 0.4612, "prob_7_plus": 0.3262, "prob_8_plus": 0.2174, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.037, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Garrett Mitchell", "matchup_score": 76.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cooper Pratt", "matchup_score": 68.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823497, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5892, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4375, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3042, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1991, "prob_4_plus": 0.7403, "prob_5_plus": 0.5892, "prob_6_plus": 0.4375, "prob_7_plus": 0.3042, "prob_8_plus": 0.1991, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.135, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake McCarthy", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Cole Carrigg", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "TJ Rumfield", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zac Veen", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 176.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 74.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Karros", "matchup_score": 64.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 824226, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 9.2, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 29.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.707, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "prob_4_plus": 0.707, "prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kevin McGonigle", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hao-Yu Lee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Malgeri", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Hao-Yu Lee", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 824791, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 25.6, "opportunity_score": 42.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.673, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "prob_4_plus": 0.673, "prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Chase DeLauter", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Travis Bazzana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Patrick Bailey", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Angel Genao", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Chase DeLauter", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 824549, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.446, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.106, "prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "prob_5_plus": 0.446, "prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "prob_8_plus": 0.106, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.057, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Konnor Griffin", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Gonzales", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Billy Cook", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Flores Jr.", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.8, "expected_contact_quality": 135.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jared Triolo", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.7, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 824064, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5675, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.393, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2498, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.147, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0808, "prob_4_plus": 0.5675, "prob_5_plus": 0.393, "prob_6_plus": 0.2498, "prob_7_plus": 0.147, "prob_8_plus": 0.0808, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Carter Jensen", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Michael Massey", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "John Rave", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.0, "expected_contact_quality": 62.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Isbel", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823251, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.959, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Chaparro", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brady House", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Chaparro", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 824226, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.8, "opportunity_score": 36.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brooks Lee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Kaelen Culpepper", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kaelen Culpepper", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.2, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Walker Jenkins", "matchup_score": 34.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823818, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 22.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.95, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.943, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Carson Benge", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jared Young", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 63.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 }, { "hitter_name": "A.J. Ewing", "matchup_score": 28.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Benge", "matchup_score": 28.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823497, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3849, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2244, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1186, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0575, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0259, "prob_4_plus": 0.3849, "prob_5_plus": 0.2244, "prob_6_plus": 0.1186, "prob_7_plus": 0.0575, "prob_8_plus": 0.0259, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.135, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Jones", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wells", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan McMahon", "matchup_score": 29.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.6, "expected_contact_quality": 113.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "game_pk": 823172, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 8.6, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3192, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.1726, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.0842, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0376, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0156, "prob_4_plus": 0.3192, "prob_5_plus": 0.1726, "prob_6_plus": 0.0842, "prob_7_plus": 0.0376, "prob_8_plus": 0.0156, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.79, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.926, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brett Harris", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Turner Hill", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryce Eldridge", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jonah Cox", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Christian Koss", "matchup_score": 47.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Grant McCray", "matchup_score": 47.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.8, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shay Whitcomb", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:49:16.500112+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 669620, "pitcher_name": "Brady Basso", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680755, "pitcher_name": "Braydon Fisher", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694918, "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800600, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 807739, "pitcher_name": "Kade Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674003, "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 476594, "pitcher_name": "Robert Stock", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687562, "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696270, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669199, "pitcher_name": "Lake Bachar", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701656, "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }