{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-10", "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-10T23:41:47.973992", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 8, "skipped_start_count": 2, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 823413, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.94, "skill_score": 53.4, "opportunity_score": 49.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8722, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7704, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6471, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5165, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3922, "prob_4_plus": 0.8722, "prob_5_plus": 0.7704, "prob_6_plus": 0.6471, "prob_7_plus": 0.5165, "prob_8_plus": 0.3922, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.082, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 98.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 93.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Yainer Diaz", "matchup_score": 82.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 823088, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 50.1, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8402, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7231, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5886, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4531, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3309, "prob_4_plus": 0.8402, "prob_5_plus": 0.7231, "prob_6_plus": 0.5886, "prob_7_plus": 0.4531, "prob_8_plus": 0.3309, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 78.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 65.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 823499, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8051, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.674, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5307, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3937, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2762, "prob_4_plus": 0.8051, "prob_5_plus": 0.674, "prob_6_plus": 0.5307, "prob_7_plus": 0.3937, "prob_8_plus": 0.2762, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.074, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 83.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.9, "expected_contact_quality": 71.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "matchup_score": 80.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 823088, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 25.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 87.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.2, "expected_contact_quality": 110.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 72.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 106.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 823499, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.112, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.074, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 54.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 824872, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4814, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3089, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1808, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0976, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.049, "prob_4_plus": 0.4814, "prob_5_plus": 0.3089, "prob_6_plus": 0.1808, "prob_7_plus": 0.0976, "prob_8_plus": 0.049, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.043, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 42.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.4, "expected_contact_quality": 108.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.7, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 35.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.8, "expected_contact_quality": 81.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 824872, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 8.3, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.043, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 39.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "matchup_score": 38.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 35.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.1, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "game_pk": 823413, "pitcher_id": 664299, "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 35.1, "opportunity_score": 22.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.435, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2671, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.149, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0765, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0365, "prob_4_plus": 0.435, "prob_5_plus": 0.2671, "prob_6_plus": 0.149, "prob_7_plus": 0.0765, "prob_8_plus": 0.0365, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.082, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.9, "expected_contact_quality": 81.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.9, "expected_contact_quality": 105.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T03:41:47.973825+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 696146, "pitcher_name": "Hagen Smith", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }