{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-11", "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T08:04:39.159511", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824873, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 79.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8631, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7567, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6299, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4975, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3735, "prob_4_plus": 0.8631, "prob_5_plus": 0.7567, "prob_6_plus": 0.6299, "prob_7_plus": 0.4975, "prob_8_plus": 0.3735, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 91.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 65.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 823498, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 24.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7906, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6545, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5085, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3718, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2567, "prob_4_plus": 0.7906, "prob_5_plus": 0.6545, "prob_6_plus": 0.5085, "prob_7_plus": 0.3718, "prob_8_plus": 0.2567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.7, "expected_contact_quality": 118.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 116.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824227, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.67, "adjustment_delta": 0.69, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7733, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6315, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.483, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3469, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2351, "prob_4_plus": 0.7733, "prob_5_plus": 0.6315, "prob_6_plus": 0.483, "prob_7_plus": 0.3469, "prob_8_plus": 0.2351, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 77.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824954, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 57.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.34, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "prob_7_plus": 0.34, "prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 94.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.3, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 81.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 79.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824631, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5892, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4375, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3042, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1991, "prob_4_plus": 0.7403, "prob_5_plus": 0.5892, "prob_6_plus": 0.4375, "prob_7_plus": 0.3042, "prob_8_plus": 0.1991, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 73.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.9, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.0, "expected_contact_quality": 90.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 823173, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7369, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.585, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.433, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3001, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1957, "prob_4_plus": 0.7369, "prob_5_plus": 0.585, "prob_6_plus": 0.433, "prob_7_plus": 0.3001, "prob_8_plus": 0.1957, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.921, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 75.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 823659, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 47.1, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.73, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.424, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.189, "prob_4_plus": 0.73, "prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "prob_6_plus": 0.424, "prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "prob_8_plus": 0.189, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.037, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 80.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.1 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824711, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "skill_score": 29.2, "opportunity_score": 63.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 79.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 78.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 69.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824873, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 47.4, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 37.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 71.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 90.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 56.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 53.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 120.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 822684, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 25.0, "opportunity_score": 32.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 71.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35613.0, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 61.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824711, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 64.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 106.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 49.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 824954, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 43.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 135.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.3, "expected_contact_quality": 62.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 33.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 823736, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 19.0, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.326, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "prob_6_plus": 0.326, "prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.9, "expected_contact_quality": 102.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 823817, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 21.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 46.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.3, "expected_contact_quality": 125.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 822930, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 29.3, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5825, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4085, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2633, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1573, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0878, "prob_4_plus": 0.5825, "prob_5_plus": 0.4085, "prob_6_plus": 0.2633, "prob_7_plus": 0.1573, "prob_8_plus": 0.0878, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.8, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 822767, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 8.7, "opportunity_score": 34.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.958, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 64.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 823736, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5451, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3704, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1328, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0713, "prob_4_plus": 0.5451, "prob_5_plus": 0.3704, "prob_6_plus": 0.2306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1328, "prob_8_plus": 0.0713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 822684, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 68.1, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.206, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.115, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "prob_6_plus": 0.206, "prob_7_plus": 0.115, "prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 56.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 822767, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 60.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.513, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3388, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2046, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.114, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0592, "prob_4_plus": 0.513, "prob_5_plus": 0.3388, "prob_6_plus": 0.2046, "prob_7_plus": 0.114, "prob_8_plus": 0.0592, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.958, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "game_pk": 823012, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 50.0, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.112, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 41.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 36.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.8, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:04:39.159205+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 696062, "pitcher_name": "Wilber Dotel", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690279, "pitcher_name": "Mason Adams", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 699044, "pitcher_name": "Miguel Ullola", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683627, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Molina", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }