{
  "date": "2026-04-14",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-14T07:02:24.379690",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 198,
    "odds_matched_count": 107,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 34,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_id": 696100,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824210,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.203,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824531,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2249,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2548,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.225,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823478,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2466,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2186,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824853,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.219,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2472,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2191,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_id": 624585,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823562,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2341,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2088,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824853,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2022,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2259,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2023,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824853,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 375,
      "over_odds": 375,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2152,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1937,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.08,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_id": 664040,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 823398,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2149,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1935,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.02,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 825022,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1909,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2118,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.191,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.27,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "player_name": "Dansby Swanson",
      "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson",
      "hitter_id": 621020,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823478,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 635,
      "over_odds": 635,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2287,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2046,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2249,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.219,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2022,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 375,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.08
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.02
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1909,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.27
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Dansby Swanson",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 635,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      }
    ]
  }
}