{
  "date": "2026-04-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-16T06:42:16.132406",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 90,
    "odds_matched_count": 49,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 20,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 825023,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2174,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824289,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2359,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2102,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823313,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2233,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_id": 701538,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823313,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 520,
      "over_odds": 520,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2225,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1996,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Spencer Torkelson",
      "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson",
      "hitter_id": 679529,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824289,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2075,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1875,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.22,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823313,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.207,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1871,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.3,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 825023,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1953,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1775,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.22,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_id": 670770,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824530,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2631,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2314,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Spencer Steer",
      "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer",
      "hitter_id": 668715,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824530,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 605,
      "over_odds": 605,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2399,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2134,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_id": 694671,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 825023,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 545,
      "over_odds": 545,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2371,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2112,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 520,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.25
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Spencer Torkelson",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.22
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.3
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.22
      },
      {
        "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Spencer Steer",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 605,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 545,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}