{
  "date": "2026-04-18",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-18T09:52:28.576268",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 261,
    "odds_matched_count": 147,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 46,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824694,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2346,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2092,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 824049,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.23,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2056,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 825020,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2152,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1938,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.08,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 824049,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2049,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2293,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.205,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823721,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2089,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1887,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823474,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2015,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1827,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.75,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825098,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1888,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.58,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_id": 642715,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822751,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2098,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1894,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823474,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1971,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1791,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 823558,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2097,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1893,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.08
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2049,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.55
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.75
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.58
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willy Adames",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.41
      }
    ]
  }
}