{
  "date": "2026-04-21",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-21T09:56:12.996024",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 171,
    "odds_matched_count": 89,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 825099,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.246,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2182,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824690,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2243,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.201,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824127,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2162,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2436,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2164,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824045,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2104,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1899,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.91,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824290,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2218,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1991,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823236,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1873,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2074,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1874,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824127,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1837,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.203,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1839,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.11,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823148,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1794,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1977,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1796,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.82,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_id": 678662,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824369,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 670,
      "over_odds": 670,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2045,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2288,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2047,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
      "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
      "hitter_id": 643217,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825099,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 640,
      "over_odds": 640,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.22,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1976,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2162,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.91
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1873,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1837,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.11
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1794,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.82
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 670,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2045,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 640,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.25
      }
    ]
  }
}