{
  "date": "2026-04-22",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-22T14:49:58.111556",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 101,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 33,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822748,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2457,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.218,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_id": 624585,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824044,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.206,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2307,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2061,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_id": 666176,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824044,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2196,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1973,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823147,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2171,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1953,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824044,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2407,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.214,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824449,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1853,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2049,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1854,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.59,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_id": 701538,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824367,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 520,
      "over_odds": 520,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2277,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2584,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2279,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 823147,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1942,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2159,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1943,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.66,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823147,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1957,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1779,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.31,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824688,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1989,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1805,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.206,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jo Adell",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1853,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.59
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 520,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2277,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1942,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.66
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.31
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.12
      }
    ]
  }
}