{
  "date": "2026-04-28",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-28T06:49:16.452921",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 105,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 25,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823798,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.188,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2083,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1882,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824931,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2076,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1876,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824931,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.211,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1904,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.26,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823956,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1807,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1993,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1809,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.21,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823716,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2061,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1863,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.06,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823798,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1971,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1791,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823310,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1787,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1969,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1789,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.61,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Matt Chapman",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman",
      "hitter_id": 656305,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823473,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1895,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2101,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1896,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.45,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824610,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1861,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.17,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.94,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-28",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 823310,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1892,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1725,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.72,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.188,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.25
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.26
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1807,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.21
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.06
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1787,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.61
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Chapman",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1895,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.45
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 42.94
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.72
      }
    ]
  }
}