{ "date": "2026-04-30", "generated_at": "2026-04-29T21:14:53.361468", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 162, "odds_matched_count": 79, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 27, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "game_id": 825016, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 360, "over_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178, "expected_home_runs": 0.2457, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2179, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 824929, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 445, "over_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2037, "expected_home_runs": 0.2278, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2038, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 825016, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2408, "expected_home_runs": 0.2755, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2409, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 823795, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 450, "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952, "expected_home_runs": 0.2172, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1953, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.56, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823472, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.189, "expected_home_runs": 0.2095, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1891, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.3, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 825016, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 500, "over_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "expected_home_runs": 0.2299, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2055, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 823795, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 380, "over_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858, "expected_home_runs": 0.2056, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1859, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.74, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team": "COL", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824524, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "expected_home_runs": 0.2034, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1841, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823472, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 505, "over_odds": 505, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902, "expected_home_runs": 0.211, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1904, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.66, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team": "COL", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824524, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 645, "over_odds": 645, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009, "expected_home_runs": 0.2243, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.201, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "KC", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Riley Greene", "team": "DET", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2037, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "team": "KC", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2408, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.6 }, { "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.56 }, { "player_name": "Willy Adames", "team": "SF", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.189, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.3 }, { "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "team": "KC", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.0 }, { "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.74 }, { "player_name": "Hunter Goodman", "team": "COL", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.2 }, { "player_name": "Matt Chapman", "team": "SF", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 505, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1902, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 44.66 }, { "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 645, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 } ] } }