{
  "date": "2026-05-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-07T18:35:30.817411",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 126,
    "odds_matched_count": 72,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 20,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824362,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2296,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2609,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2297,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824117,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2215,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2504,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2217,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824117,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2284,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2043,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 825090,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1919,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2131,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1921,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.57,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 823551,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2145,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1932,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.33,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Spencer Steer",
      "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer",
      "hitter_id": 668715,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824681,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 570,
      "over_odds": 570,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2037,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2278,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2039,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_id": 700932,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824117,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2057,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.186,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.77,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_id": 666182,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824362,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 695,
      "over_odds": 695,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2543,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2246,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 822741,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 590,
      "over_odds": 590,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2039,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.228,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.204,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-07",
      "player_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 682663,
      "team": "MIA",
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823870,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 560,
      "over_odds": 560,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2146,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1933,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.93,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2296,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2215,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1919,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.57
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.33
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Spencer Steer",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 570,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2037,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.77
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 695,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 590,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2039,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "MIA",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 560,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 42.93
      }
    ]
  }
}