{
  "date": "2026-05-17",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-17T14:45:57.537451",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 216,
    "odds_matched_count": 119,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 37,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824192,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2301,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2057,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824599,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.219,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2472,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2191,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823381,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.236,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2103,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "game_id": 823628,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1991,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.222,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1992,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823058,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2296,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2053,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824192,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2175,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_id": 695657,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824599,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.217,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2446,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2171,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.24,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823381,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.191,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.212,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1912,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.1,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823058,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1888,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.78,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "player_name": "Willson Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 575929,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824923,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 535,
      "over_odds": 535,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2243,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2011,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.219,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "NYM",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1991,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.73
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.25
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.217,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.24
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.191,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.1
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.78
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willson Contreras",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 535,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.2
      }
    ]
  }
}