{ "date": "2026-06-03", "generated_at": "2026-06-03T08:02:26.358273", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 198, "odds_matched_count": 113, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 34, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823456, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 415, "over_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2273, "expected_home_runs": 0.2579, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2274, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 823130, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033, "expected_home_runs": 0.2273, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2034, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "game_id": 823130, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "expected_home_runs": 0.2197, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1973, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.36, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 825077, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2084, "expected_home_runs": 0.2337, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2086, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "James Wood", "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team": "WSH", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 822727, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 485, "over_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2154, "expected_home_runs": 0.2426, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2155, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "game_id": 823130, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1966, "expected_home_runs": 0.2189, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1968, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.38, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "game_id": 824917, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1938, "expected_home_runs": 0.2154, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1939, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.14, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 822973, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 445, "over_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1845, "expected_home_runs": 0.204, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1846, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.35, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 825077, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 450, "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1817, "expected_home_runs": 0.2005, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1818, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.51, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "player_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824024, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 425, "over_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1769, "expected_home_runs": 0.1947, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1771, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.07, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2273, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NYM", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.36 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2084, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 48.4 }, { "player_name": "James Wood", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2154, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.2 }, { "player_name": "Josh Naylor", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NYM", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1966, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 47.38 }, { "player_name": "Austin Riley", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "TOR", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1938, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.14 }, { "player_name": "Riley Greene", "team": "DET", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1845, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.35 }, { "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1817, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 45.51 }, { "player_name": "Mike Trout", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1769, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 45.07 } ] } }