{
  "date": "2026-06-19",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-18T23:32:38.838465",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 98,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 26,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824179,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2218,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.199,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824179,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.189,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2095,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1892,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.3,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824663,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2192,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.197,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.44,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824910,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1864,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2063,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1865,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.92,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_id": 670242,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825069,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2043,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1849,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.44,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 822886,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2173,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1955,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.39,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 661388,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824910,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 645,
      "over_odds": 645,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2026,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2264,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2028,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822886,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2088,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1885,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.72,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823534,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2251,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2017,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "player_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_id": 605137,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825069,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2233,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.189,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.3
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.44
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1864,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.92
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.44
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.39
      },
      {
        "player_name": "William Contreras",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 645,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2026,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.72
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Bell",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}