{
  "date": "2026-07-08",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-08T08:02:51.358084",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 126,
    "odds_matched_count": 64,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 17,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824815,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2552,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2253,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822880,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2164,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.78,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824253,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2094,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1891,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_id": 621439,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 823684,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1963,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1784,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_id": 664023,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824815,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.232,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2072,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824815,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1912,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1741,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Daylen Lile",
      "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile",
      "hitter_id": 695734,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 822710,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 770,
      "over_odds": 770,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2034,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1842,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 823202,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1639,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.179,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.164,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.17,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
      "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
      "hitter_id": 671056,
      "team": "STL",
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823032,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 635,
      "over_odds": 635,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1975,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1793,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "player_name": "Jahmai Jones",
      "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones",
      "hitter_id": 663330,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824253,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 605,
      "over_odds": 605,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1703,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1867,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1705,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 36.09,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.78
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ian Happ",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Daylen Lile",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 770,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 40.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1639,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.17
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
        "team": "STL",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 635,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jahmai Jones",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 605,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1703,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 36.09
      }
    ]
  }
}