{
  "date": "2026-07-09",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-09T08:04:30.774937",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 171,
    "odds_matched_count": 96,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 32,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "game_id": 823606,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2254,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.202,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822954,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2228,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1999,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.91,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824816,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2145,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2414,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2146,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 824494,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2399,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2134,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823277,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2049,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2293,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.205,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824816,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2203,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2489,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2205,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822954,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2457,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2179,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824816,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1935,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2151,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1936,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.05,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_id": 624585,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822877,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.227,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2032,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 823606,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1988,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2217,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.199,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.11,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "NYM",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.91
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2145,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2049,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2203,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1935,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.05
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1988,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.11
      }
    ]
  }
}