{
  "date": "2026-07-11",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-11T08:03:46.669331",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 101,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 34,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823844,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2065,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2313,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2067,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822875,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2362,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2105,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823682,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2364,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2107,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823926,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2402,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2137,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823198,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1912,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2122,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1913,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.36,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823030,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1912,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2122,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1913,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.36,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824249,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2088,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1885,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.52,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824813,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2077,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1877,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.45,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823030,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1847,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2042,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1849,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-11",
      "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_id": 662139,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823276,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1815,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2003,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1817,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.45,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2065,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1912,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.36
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1912,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.36
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.52
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.45
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1847,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1815,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.45
      }
    ]
  }
}