{
  "date": "2026-07-12",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-12T08:03:30.521071",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 189,
    "odds_matched_count": 108,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 34,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 822876,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2317,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2636,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2318,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823681,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2094,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2349,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2095,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822876,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2277,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2037,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824491,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2269,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2031,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824814,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.23,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2056,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822708,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2115,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2376,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2116,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822708,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2157,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1941,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_id": 621439,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 823681,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2025,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1835,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.99,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 822708,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 590,
      "over_odds": 590,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2259,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2561,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2262,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-12",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 822876,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2631,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2314,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2317,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2094,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2115,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.99
      },
      {
        "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 590,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2259,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 46.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.8
      }
    ]
  }
}