{
  "date": "2026-07-17",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-17T08:02:45.930500",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 126,
    "odds_matched_count": 72,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 23,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824901,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2429,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2158,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824655,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2126,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.239,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2127,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824170,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2052,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2297,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2053,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824090,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2228,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1999,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.31,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824414,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2172,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1953,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824090,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1984,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824170,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2175,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 824981,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2149,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1935,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.02,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_id": 664023,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824655,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2257,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2558,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2259,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "player_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_id": 605137,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824655,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2207,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2494,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2209,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2126,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2052,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.31
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.25
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.02
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ian Happ",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2257,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Bell",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2207,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      }
    ]
  }
}