{
  "date": "2026-07-19",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-19T08:05:58.126698",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 207,
    "odds_matched_count": 116,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 33,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824897,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1999,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.223,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.97,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824168,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2285,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2594,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2286,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824330,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2173,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1955,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.59,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824168,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2402,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2136,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824086,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2287,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2045,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 825057,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1933,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2148,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1934,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.99,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823764,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2362,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2105,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 822786,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2196,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1973,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824897,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.186,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2058,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1862,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824978,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2228,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1999,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.51,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1999,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.97
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2285,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.59
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1933,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.99
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.186,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.51
      }
    ]
  }
}