{ "date": "2026-07-20", "generated_at": "2026-07-20T08:03:10.223134", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 216, "odds_matched_count": 115, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 30, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "game_id": 822874, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2355, "expected_home_runs": 0.2685, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2356, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "game_id": 824087, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "expected_home_runs": 0.2471, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.219, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 824167, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048, "expected_home_runs": 0.2292, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2049, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "game_id": 822874, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 425, "over_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946, "expected_home_runs": 0.2164, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.38, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 823762, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 320, "over_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2302, "expected_home_runs": 0.2616, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2303, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.47, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "game_id": 823436, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 580, "over_odds": 580, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044, "expected_home_runs": 0.2287, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2046, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "game_id": 822874, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 570, "over_odds": 570, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2237, "expected_home_runs": 0.2532, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2238, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_id": 664023, "team": "CHC", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824654, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 550, "over_odds": 550, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091, "expected_home_runs": 0.2346, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2092, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team": "MIL", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "game_id": 823762, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 670, "over_odds": 670, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2067, "expected_home_runs": 0.2316, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2068, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 825058, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 500, "over_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1823, "expected_home_runs": 0.2013, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1825, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.69, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Corey Seager", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "CWS", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2355, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "team": "SF", "opponent": "KC", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jake Burger", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "CWS", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.38 }, { "player_name": "Juan Soto", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2302, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.47 }, { "player_name": "Trea Turner", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "LAD", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 580, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 45.0 }, { "player_name": "Wyatt Langford", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "CWS", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 570, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2237, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Ian Happ", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 550, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "William Contreras", "team": "MIL", "opponent": "NYM", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 670, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2067, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1823, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 42.69 } ] } }