{
  "date": "2026-07-21",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-21T08:02:39.667720",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 135,
    "odds_matched_count": 77,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 24,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824895,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2243,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.254,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2245,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824895,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2268,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2031,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823437,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2129,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2394,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.213,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824735,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2027,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2265,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2028,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823437,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2239,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2535,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2242,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_id": 695657,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822871,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2274,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2035,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.24,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824895,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2163,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.75,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824735,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2161,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1944,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.49,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824735,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2034,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1841,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-21",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824085,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1807,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1993,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1809,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.21,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2243,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2129,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2027,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2239,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.24
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.75
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.49
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1807,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.21
      }
    ]
  }
}