{
  "date": "2026-07-22",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-22T08:04:22.790166",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 98,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 27,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824166,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2205,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1981,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.37,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823110,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2299,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2055,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823438,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2008,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2242,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2009,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824896,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2259,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2561,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2261,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823518,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2366,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.27,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2367,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 824004,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2001,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1815,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.42,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_id": 670242,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824408,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1975,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1793,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano",
      "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano",
      "hitter_id": 657656,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824896,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 555,
      "over_odds": 555,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2207,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1982,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_id": 670770,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823110,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2116,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2377,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2117,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824896,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1882,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2085,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1883,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.86,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.37
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2008,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2259,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2366,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.42
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 555,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2116,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1882,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.86
      }
    ]
  }
}