{
  "date": "2026-07-25",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-25T23:44:11.538803",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 198,
    "odds_matched_count": 105,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822869,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2233,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2527,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2235,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 823355,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2492,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2207,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823435,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2322,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824244,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2341,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2088,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824811,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2164,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1947,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824571,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2149,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1935,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824244,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2094,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.189,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824811,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.188,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2083,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1882,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_id": 701538,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823841,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 520,
      "over_odds": 520,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2466,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2186,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "player_name": "Randy Arozarena",
      "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena",
      "hitter_id": 668227,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822869,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 595,
      "over_odds": 595,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2258,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2022,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2233,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.188,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 520,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Randy Arozarena",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 595,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}