{ "date": "2026-07-26", "generated_at": "2026-07-26T23:45:06.724256", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 198, "odds_matched_count": 104, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 34, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team": "MIN", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 823678, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 360, "over_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2251, "expected_home_runs": 0.255, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2252, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 822950, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245, "expected_home_runs": 0.2543, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2246, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 823433, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 415, "over_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2166, "expected_home_runs": 0.2441, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2167, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "game_id": 824572, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066, "expected_home_runs": 0.2314, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2067, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 823354, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1987, "expected_home_runs": 0.2215, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1988, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.61, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 822870, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 425, "over_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1938, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.08, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team": "CWS", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824572, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 335, "over_odds": 335, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996, "expected_home_runs": 0.2226, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1997, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.12, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 823433, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 465, "over_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "expected_home_runs": 0.217, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1952, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.33, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "game_id": 823599, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 320, "over_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083, "expected_home_runs": 0.2336, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2084, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.47, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "game_id": 823599, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117, "expected_home_runs": 0.2379, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2118, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Byron Buxton", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2251, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2166, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "CWS", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1987, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.61 }, { "player_name": "Jake Burger", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.08 }, { "player_name": "Colson Montgomery", "team": "CWS", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 335, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.12 }, { "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.33 }, { "player_name": "Juan Soto", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "LAD", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.47 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "NYM", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.4 } ] } }