{ "date": "2026-07-27", "generated_at": "2026-07-27T23:43:59.569325", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 126, "odds_matched_count": 65, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 22, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "game_id": 823353, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 380, "over_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198, "expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1982, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 822868, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "expected_home_runs": 0.2676, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2349, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824490, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2047, "expected_home_runs": 0.229, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2048, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824245, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2249, "expected_home_runs": 0.2547, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.225, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824245, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 445, "over_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979, "expected_home_runs": 0.2205, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.198, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.37, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824245, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2007, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 822868, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2306, "expected_home_runs": 0.2622, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2307, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_id": 621020, "team": "CHC", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "game_id": 823025, "lineup_slot": 6, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 605, "over_odds": 605, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1978, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.28, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 822868, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 570, "over_odds": 570, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2278, "expected_home_runs": 0.2585, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2279, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824490, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 540, "over_odds": 540, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.218, "expected_home_runs": 0.2459, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2181, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "PIT", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.4 }, { "player_name": "Corey Seager", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2047, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2249, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.6 }, { "player_name": "Riley Greene", "team": "DET", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.37 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.2 }, { "player_name": "Josh Naylor", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2306, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.4 }, { "player_name": "Dansby Swanson", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "STL", "lineup_slot": 6, "hr_odds": 605, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 44.28 }, { "player_name": "Wyatt Langford", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 570, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2278, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 540, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.218, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 } ] } }