{
  "date": "2026-07-28",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T08:02:33.502966",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 144,
    "odds_matched_count": 70,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 22,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823676,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2296,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2052,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823676,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2029,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823275,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2099,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1895,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822703,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2299,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2055,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823598,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.19,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2107,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1901,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823350,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2106,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.19,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.97,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824243,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 445,
      "over_odds": 445,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1806,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1992,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1807,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823275,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2061,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1864,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.06,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 671277,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822703,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 675,
      "over_odds": 675,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1991,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.222,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1992,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-28",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824243,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1705,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1869,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1706,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.15,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.19,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.97
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 445,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1806,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.06
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 675,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1991,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.73
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1705,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.15
      }
    ]
  }
}