{ "date": "2026-07-29", "generated_at": "2026-07-30T00:02:17.464719", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 198, "odds_matched_count": 89, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 35, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 823837, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 415, "over_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2372, "expected_home_runs": 0.2707, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2373, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "game_id": 823924, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 440, "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2224, "expected_home_runs": 0.2515, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2225, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824487, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135, "expected_home_runs": 0.2402, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2136, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "George Springer", "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team": "TOR", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 822702, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2167, "expected_home_runs": 0.2443, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2169, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 823677, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1957, "expected_home_runs": 0.2178, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1959, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.91, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 823837, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 465, "over_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141, "expected_home_runs": 0.2409, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2142, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.8, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824002, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 425, "over_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1937, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.08, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team": "TOR", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 822702, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059, "expected_home_runs": 0.2305, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.206, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 823924, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2131, "expected_home_runs": 0.2397, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2133, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "player_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824242, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 330, "over_odds": 330, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955, "expected_home_runs": 0.2175, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.3, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2372, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "LAD", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2224, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "George Springer", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2167, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.0 }, { "player_name": "Salvador Perez", "team": "KC", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1957, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 49.91 }, { "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 465, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.8 }, { "player_name": "Mike Trout", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.08 }, { "player_name": "Daulton Varsho", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.0 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2131, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 48.4 }, { "player_name": "Pete Alonso", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 330, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.3 } ] } }