{
  "date": "2026-07-30",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-30T23:58:33.391740",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 117,
    "odds_matched_count": 68,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 11,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 824894,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2471,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.219,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_id": 642715,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823271,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2231,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2001,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_id": 664023,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823023,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1984,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 824894,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1895,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2101,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1896,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_id": 676475,
      "team": "STL",
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 823023,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 625,
      "over_odds": 625,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2002,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2234,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2003,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_id": 605141,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823921,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 525,
      "over_odds": 525,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1991,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1806,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.15,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald",
      "hitter_id": 666149,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823271,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 730,
      "over_odds": 730,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1989,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1805,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Alex Bregman",
      "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman",
      "hitter_id": 608324,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823023,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 560,
      "over_odds": 560,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1801,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1986,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1802,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.03,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Marcus Semien",
      "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien",
      "hitter_id": 543760,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823595,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 630,
      "over_odds": 630,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1772,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.195,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1773,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "player_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano",
      "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano",
      "hitter_id": 657656,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 823271,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 555,
      "over_odds": 555,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1668,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1825,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1669,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 34.04,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willy Adames",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ian Happ",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1895,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.25
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Alec Burleson",
        "team": "STL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 625,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2002,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 525,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.15
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 730,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.12
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Alex Bregman",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 560,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1801,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.03
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcus Semien",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 630,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1772,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 555,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1668,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 34.04
      }
    ]
  }
}