{
  "date": "2026-07-31",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-01T00:07:29.339406",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 100,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 36,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824809,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2409,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2142,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824164,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2336,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2084,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824486,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2237,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2005,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824164,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2212,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1985,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824325,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2311,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2628,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2313,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824325,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2341,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2667,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2342,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 824651,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1898,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2105,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.19,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.94,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824407,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1876,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2078,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1877,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.28,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 823922,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2011,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1823,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.66,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824809,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 580,
      "over_odds": 580,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2274,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2035,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.12
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2311,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2341,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1898,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.94
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1876,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.28
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.66
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 580,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}