{ "date": "2026-08-01", "generated_at": "2026-08-02T00:09:01.876845", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 162, "odds_matched_count": 88, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 29, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 824162, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192, "expected_home_runs": 0.2475, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2194, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824162, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "expected_home_runs": 0.2676, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2349, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 824890, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178, "expected_home_runs": 0.2457, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2179, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823269, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102, "expected_home_runs": 0.236, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2103, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824326, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2126, "expected_home_runs": 0.239, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2127, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team": "MIN", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 823109, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 405, "over_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1815, "expected_home_runs": 0.2003, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1816, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.45, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team": "CWS", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 822944, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 335, "over_odds": 335, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1854, "expected_home_runs": 0.2051, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1855, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.86, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824485, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.207, "expected_home_runs": 0.2319, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2071, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 824890, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2024, "expected_home_runs": 0.2261, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2025, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "player_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824162, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 580, "over_odds": 580, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996, "expected_home_runs": 0.2227, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1997, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.88, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Corey Seager", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Matt Olson", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2178, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "team": "SF", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "team": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2126, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.0 }, { "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1815, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 45.45 }, { "player_name": "Colson Montgomery", "team": "CWS", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 335, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1854, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.86 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.207, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2024, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Joc Pederson", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 580, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.88 } ] } }