{ "date": "2026-08-02", "generated_at": "2026-08-02T23:50:38.991890", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 171, "odds_matched_count": 96, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 31, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 824163, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2123, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 824891, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "expected_home_runs": 0.2669, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2344, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824323, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 440, "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2326, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824971, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2241, "expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2242, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824807, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 415, "over_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072, "expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824971, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 390, "over_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2017, "expected_home_runs": 0.2253, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2018, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824323, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2463, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824404, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 380, "over_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1945, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.32, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 824807, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.194, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.37, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-02", "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824323, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 500, "over_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2219, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Matt Olson", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Salvador Perez", "team": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Brent Rooker", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2241, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Bryce Harper", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 415, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2017, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "team": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.6 }, { "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.32 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.37 }, { "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "team": "KC", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.0 } ] } }