{
  "date": "2026-08-03",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-04T00:05:10.515107",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 99,
    "odds_matched_count": 57,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 20,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 822867,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2014,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2249,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2016,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825095,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2161,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1945,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.29,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823431,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2322,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_id": 662139,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824160,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1933,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2148,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1935,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.99,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824160,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2285,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2044,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825095,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1914,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2124,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1915,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 822867,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2214,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1987,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.38,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824647,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1766,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1943,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1767,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.98,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Heliot Ramos",
      "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos",
      "hitter_id": 671218,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822867,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 635,
      "over_odds": 635,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1907,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2116,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1909,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.21,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824647,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2077,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1876,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.05,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2014,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.29
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1933,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.99
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1914,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.38
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1766,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.98
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Heliot Ramos",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 635,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1907,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 42.21
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.05
      }
    ]
  }
}