{ "date": "2026-08-04", "generated_at": "2026-08-05T00:21:54.784457", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 180, "odds_matched_count": 96, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 32, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824805, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 410, "over_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994, "expected_home_runs": 0.2224, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1996, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.82, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 824484, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2122, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "game_id": 824403, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "expected_home_runs": 0.2251, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2017, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824805, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1999, "expected_home_runs": 0.223, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.57, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 825054, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 450, "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975, "expected_home_runs": 0.22, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1976, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.25, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "George Springer", "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team": "TOR", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824161, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2216, "expected_home_runs": 0.2505, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2217, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team": "TOR", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824161, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104, "expected_home_runs": 0.2362, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2105, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 824084, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2077, "expected_home_runs": 0.2328, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2078, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824403, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1926, "expected_home_runs": 0.2139, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1927, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.78, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 824484, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 540, "over_odds": 540, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2275, "expected_home_runs": 0.2581, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2276, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Mike Trout", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.82 }, { "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "NYM", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1999, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.57 }, { "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.25 }, { "player_name": "George Springer", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2216, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.0 }, { "player_name": "Daulton Varsho", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.0 }, { "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "team": "KC", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2077, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.0 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1926, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.78 }, { "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 540, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2275, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 } ] } }